TransUnion 2026 Originations Forecast Shows Continued Positive Momentum Amidst Moderate Expansion

TransUnion (NYSE: TRU) released its 2026 credit originations forecast, highlighting continued momentum in originations for mortgages as well as for unsecured personal loans. These growth trends come as forecasted demand for other credit products shows mixed performance. TransUnion released the originations forecast alongside its Q4 2025 Credit Industry Insights Report (CIIR), which pointed to continued expansion in consumer lending at the end of 2025.

The 2026 originations forecast points to mortgage and unsecured personal loans as the primary drivers of projected expansion. Mortgage originations, both purchase and refinance, are set to extend the rebound of the past two years from near-record low levels, and unsecured personal loans are on pace for a third consecutive year of annual growth. These shifts illustrate continued consumer demand for credit in 2026 across most products, though at slower levels of growth than in 2025 as the broader credit landscape continues to normalize.

Mortgage and Unsecured Personal Loans are Expected to See Moderate Growth in 2026

Annual Originations (annual growth)		2026**	2025**	2024	2023	2022
Auto		-1.5%	4.9%	2.4%	-6.1%	-10.9%
Credit Card		2.0%	9.0%	-5.1%	-4.3%	10.4%
Mortgage	Purchase	4.0%	2.3%	4.6%	-24.7%	-30.2%
	Refinance	4.2%	28.1%	50.6%	-68.6%	-75.1%
Unsecured Personal Loans		11.2%*	20.8%*	13.9%	-11.4%	18.4%

**Forecasted

*An earlier version of the news release referenced initial projections of 5.7% and 20.2%, which have since been updated.

Source: TransUnion U.S. Consumer Credit Database, Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Forecast

Credit cards are also expected to see a modest increase in originations for 2026; however, it’s worth noting that this expansion comes on the heels of near-record growth in 2025. Auto loan originations are expected to edge lower, following 2025 gains that were driven largely by consumers who accelerated purchases in advance of anticipated tariffs and the end of the EV tax credit.

“We expect lending activity to remain measured across most categories as lenders take a disciplined approach to profitable growth, using more data and services to better manage risk and fraud,” said Jason Laky, executive vice president and head of financial services at TransUnion. “At the same time, consumer demand for credit remains strong across risk tiers and will likely strengthen further if interest rates fall more than expected in the coming quarters.”

TransUnion’s Q4 2025 Credit Industry Insights Report saw originations gains as delinquencies edged up

Early signs of this forecasted originations growth can be seen when looking back to late 2025, where year-over-year (YoY) increases emerged across credit cards, unsecured personal loans and auto. At the same time, more consumers continued to drift away from the mid-level risk tiers and toward the highest and lowest risk tiers, reshaping portfolio dynamics for lenders. After remaining unchanged for the past several years, the median VantageScore^® posted a YoY decline in Q4 2025, down 2 points to 711, signaling a subtle, but meaningful change in overall consumer credit health.

“After several years marked by credit behaviors influenced by stubbornly high inflation and elevated interest rates, we may be seeing signs of a return to more traditional growth,” said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion. “As these more typical patterns return, it’s more important than ever for lenders to leverage advanced tools, including trended data, to more accurately assess evolving risk profiles.”

Bankcard originations surge as balances hold steady

Q4 2025 CIIR Credit Card Summary

• Bankcard originations rose 11.7% year‑over‑year in Q3 2025, marking the fourth consecutive quarterly increase and the strongest annual growth in three years. Growth was primarily driven by both the subprime and super prime segments.

• Total balances grew 4.2% year‑over‑year in Q4 2025 to $1.15 trillion, with the pace of growth holding steady for the fourth consecutive quarter. Total new credit lines rose 9.2% year‑over‑year as issuers continued shifting toward more below‑prime accounts with lower initial credit limits to help manage risk.

• Consumer‑level delinquencies ticked up after four consecutive quarters of year‑over‑year improvement, though overall levels remain consistent with those seen in 2023. The 90+ days past due (DPD) delinquency rate on a consumer basis rose 2 basis points to 2.58%, remaining relatively flat over the last 3 years.

Instant Analysis

“Origination volume is expected to remain flat or experience slight seasonal declines next quarter, with a growing share shifting toward below‑prime consumers. The continued expansion of the bankcard market reflects strengthened originations across all risk tiers, reflecting a measured commitment to maintaining credit access for consumers throughout the risk spectrum. We anticipate that balances will hold their current pace of growth in the near term.”

– Paul Siegfried, senior vice president, credit card business leader at TransUnion

Q4 2025 Credit Card Trends

Credit Card Lending Metric (Bankcard)	Q4 2025	Q4 2024	Q4 2023	Q4 2022
Number of Credit Cards (Bankcards)	581.0 million	561.5 million	542.6 million	518.4 million
Borrower-Level Delinquency Rate (90+ DPD)	2.58%	2.56%	2.59%	2.26%
Total Credit Card Balances	$1.15 Trillion	$1.11 Trillion	$1.05 Trillion	$931 billion
Average Debt Per Borrower	$6,715	$6,580	$6,360	$5,805
Number of Consumers Carrying a Balance	176.4 million	173.1 million	169.9 million	166.0 million
Prior Quarter Originations*	21.3 million	19.1 million	20.1 million	21.6 million
Average New Account Credit Lines*	$5,587	$5,702	$5,673	$5,226

Source: TransUnion U.S. Consumer Credit Database

*Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.

Unsecured personal loan demand sets a new high as lenders navigate shifting risk

Q4 2025 CIIR Unsecured Personal Loan Summary

• Unsecured personal loan originations reached a record 7.2M in Q3 2025, the second consecutive quarter of new highs. Subprime drove growth with a 32.5% YoY increase in originations, while near prime and super prime segments each rose 21.5%. FinTech lenders held a 42% share of originations, up from roughly one‑third a year earlier.

• Total unsecured personal loan balances climbed to a record $276B in Q4 2025, held across 26.4M consumers carrying a balance. Subprime borrowers again led expansion with a 17% YoY increase. Despite record totals, average balances per consumer and per account remained flat YoY.

• The consumer‑level 60+ days past due delinquency rate rose to 3.99% in Q4 2025 from 3.57% a year earlier, the largest YoY increase since early 2023 and consistent with late‑2022/2023 levels. Delinquency rose across all risk tiers, with subprime showing the sharpest increase at about half a percentage point. Even so, vintage data indicate new accounts originated in Q1 and Q2 2025 are going delinquent at a lower rate than in prior years, particularly within subprime.

Instant Analysis

“More Americans are turning to unsecured personal loans, and lenders are meeting that demand with stronger risk management. FinTechs remain the most active issuers, and even at elevated growth levels, especially among non‑prime borrowers, performance reflects disciplined underwriting and recalibrated risk strategies. Although account‑ and consumer‑level delinquency increased year over year, balance‑level performance held steady. Recent vintages also show newer subprime loans outperforming older cohorts, while super‑prime performance has deteriorated slightly.”

–  Josh Turnbull, senior vice president, consumer lending business leader at TransUnion