Pessimism About Future Household Finances Rises, Yet Majority Of U.S. Consumers Remain Optimistic

As tariffs and the potential for rising cost of goods have dominated the news cycle since early April, a new TransUnion (NYSE: TRU) Q2 2025 Consumer Pulse study found that 27% of U.S. consumers are now pessimistic about their household finances over the next 12 months. This marks a six-percentage point rise from Q4 2024 (21%) and a four-percentage point increase from a year ago (23%). It’s the highest level since TransUnion first began tracking this data point in Q1 2021.

Despite the rise in pessimism, 55% of consumers are optimistic about their household finances over the next 12 months – the same percentage as in Q2 2024. However, optimism has declined from 58% in Q4 2024. The youngest consumers surveyed – Gen Z and Millennials – remain most optimistic about future finances, at 67% and 64%, respectively. The findings are derived from a survey of 2,998 American adults between May 1-12, 2025.

“Since early April, there has been a marked increase in the level of uncertainty about future costs primarily due to the ongoing discussions about tariffs,” said Charlie Wise, senior vice president and head of global research and consulting at TransUnion. “While we’ve seen a rise in pessimism about future finances, it can’t be overstated that the same percentage of Americans are as optimistic about their future finances today as they were at this same time last year. We posit this is happening because of the continued strong employment picture and sustained wage gains. If you have a job and feel like you’re likely to get some form of pay increase over the next year, then you also will likely be able to manage through most possible scenarios for increases in the costs of goods and services.”

Impact of Tariff Concerns on Credit Market

Nearly nine in 10 Americans (87%) reported some level of concern about the impact of current or possible tariffs on their household finances; 41% said they were very concerned. To that end, the Consumer Pulse study found that  consumers now have an increasing interest in securing credit products.

Of those consumers who were very concerned about tariffs, 37% planned to apply for new credit or refinance existing credit in the next year, a higher rate than all others (30%) who planned the same. Liquidity credit products which provide access to cash, including credit cards and personal loans, appeared to be a greater preference for those who are tariff concerned. Specifically, this group is interested in increasing available credit on existing credit cards, applying for a personal loan and using buy now, pay later payment services.

“When there is uncertainty in the market, this often results in consumers seeking new credit to ensure they are prepared for any future financial hurdles. While it’s not clear just how much of an impact tariffs will have on consumer wallets, it is clear that those consumers who are most concerned about them are more likely to be preparing for the future through myriad credit options,” said Wise.

Recession Fears Return, But are Consumers Simply in ‘Rinse and Repeat’ Mode?

While inflation continues to be the top financial concern of Americans – 81% ranked it as a Top 3 concern in the next 12 months – there was a pronounced increase in fears of a recession. This metric jumped seven percentage points from Q2 2024 with 52% saying it was in their Top 3 financial concerns over the next 12 months — its highest level in two years. In Q4 2024, fears of a recession stood at 43%.

While recession anxieties are growing, Americans were even more worried two years ago, when 53% of respondents rated it as one of their Top 3 concerns. At that time, 75% of Q2 2023 Consumer Pulse study respondents said they believed the country would be in a recession by the end of 2023. In comparison, 72% of this quarter’s respondents believe there will be a recession by the end of 2025. No recession ever occurred in 2023 or has over the ensuing two years, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

“Fears of a recession should never be discounted. However, history has a way of repeating itself. To this end, consumers are being pragmatic and considering the news of the day. As tariff discussions bring uncertainty, so do increased fears of economic setbacks. Yet, just like we saw in the second quarter of 2023, there are a lot of positives about the economy and the consumer credit market at-large. One thing is certain – we should expect to see more shifts in consumer sentiment in the coming months,” concluded Wise.