October Data Shows Year-Over-Year Total Lock Volume Continues To Drop
October MCTlive! Lock Volume Indices show that year-over-year total lock volume (-60.4 percent) continues to drop, as expected, when compared to the white-hot summer of 2021. While last month saw both the month-over-month rate/term refinance lock figure and purchase index increase, those figures were down 28.9 percent and 15.8 percent, respectively.
Total mortgage rate locks by dollar volume decreased 17.1 percent month-over-month in October. Cash out refinances are down 27.6 percent month-over-month and from one year ago volume is down 87.2 percent, while rate/term refinance volume has dropped 93.2 percent from 2021. Please note that loan sizes were up 8.3 percent over the past year, with the average loan amount increasing from $292k to $317k.
It is important to note that MCT’s rate lock activity indices are based on actual dollar volume of locked loans, not number of applications. Especially in a tight purchase market, MCT believes its methodology (using actual loans locked vs. applications) is a more reliable metric. There is a higher likelihood of having multiple applications per funded loan, and prequals do not convert at as high of a rate in the current market as has historically been the case – especially when applications are counted at the early stage of entering a property address.
MCT Data represents a balanced cross section of several hundred lenders among retail, correspondent, wholesale, and consumer direct channels. A broad-based view of the entire market provides a more accurate picture of mortgage originations versus indices that are influenced by mega lenders. The October MCTlive! Lock Volume Indices is broken out by transaction type: purchase, rate/term refinance, and cash out refinance.
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