Spring Buying Season Kicks Off With An Uptick In Purchase Applications Despite Climbing Interest Rates
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Optimal Blue released its February 2024 Originations Market Monitor report, which reveals that the spring homebuying season has kicked off with a jump in monthly purchase mortgage locks. The seasonal spike in purchase locks propelled a net increase in origination activity, even as higher interest rates led to steep declines in mortgage refinances.
Key findings from the February 2024 Originations Market Monitor report, which reflects month-over-month changes in mortgage lock data, show:
- Lock activity up despite steep decline in refinances: Rate lock volumes saw a 5% increase due to a notable 8.3% increase in purchase activity. The rise in purchase activity outpaced the decrease in refinancing activity, which fell by 22.5% for rate/term refinances and 3.1% for cash-out refinances.
- Purchase market nearing its floor: Purchase lock counts, which control for changing home prices, rose 7%, a significant growth compared to the 2% increase in the same period last year during a similar uptick in interest rates. The 7% year-over-year decline in lock activity was the smallest such drop since the Fed began hiking interest rates in March 2022.
- Interest rate trend reverses: The benchmark Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices (OBMMI) observed an end to three consecutive months of rate declines — the result of strong economic readings, which significantly lowered market expectations of a near-term rate cut. The OBMMI 30-year conforming rate index rose 36 bps to 6.89%, FHA rose 28 bps to 6.66%, VA rose 41 bps to 6.50%, and jumbo rose 37 bps to 7.35%.
- Non-conforming products see gains: Non-conforming loan products, including jumbo and non-QM loans, claimed an additional 183 basis points of market share, ending the month with 11% of the total volume. Meanwhile, conforming loans maintained a steady 57%, with slight decreases in FHA and VA loans.
- ARMs become slightly more popular: The rate increase nudged the share of ARM loans up, though they still account for only 6% of total production volume. The current economic scenario, particularly the inverted yield curve, will likely constrain further demand growth for these products.
- Credit quality and loan amounts continue upward trend: Credit quality continued to improve across all loan products, except VA loans, which held steady. The average loan amount increased from $355.6K to $359.3K, while the average home purchase price climbed from $444.9K to $454.1K.
“As the spring buying season commenced, we saw a resurgence in purchase locks, despite the rise in interest rates,” said Brennan O’Connell, director of data solutions at Optimal Blue. “Although lock counts were down on a year-over-year basis, the rate of decline is decelerating and suggests we may be nearing a floor for purchase lending in the current rate environment.”
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