December Mortgage Lock Data Reveals Year-Over-Year Increases Across All Loan Types Despite Seasonal Downturn

January 27, 2025 PROGRESS In Lending

Optimal Blue released its December 2024 Market Advantage mortgage data report, showcasing year-over-year (YoY) growth in mortgage activity, even as seasonal trends led to a month-over-month (MoM) decline in rate lock volumes. Overall, December mortgage lock volume was up 26% YoY, driven by an 18% increase in purchase locks, a 43% rise in cash-out refinances, and an 82% jump in rate-and-term refinances.

“December’s data illustrates how the market can adapt to shifting conditions,” said Brennan O’Connell, director of data solutions at Optimal Blue. “While a seasonal dip was expected, the year-over-year growth reflects resilience and an increasing demand for refinance opportunities driven by rate adjustments. Notably, conforming loan share has hovered around historic lows for the past five months, hitting 51% last month. This trend illustrates how borrowers are relying increasingly on government and non-conforming loans to finance in a challenging market.”

Key findings from the Market Advantage report, derived from direct-source mortgage lock data, include:

Rates fluctuate, ending December higher: After initial declines, rates rose throughout the month. The Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices (OBMMI) 30-year conforming rate ended December at 6.83%, up 16 bps from the end of November. FHA and VA rates followed suit, rising 14 bps and 18 bps, respectively. Jumbo rates fell slightly, ending just below 7%.
Refinance activity spikes: The share of refinance locks climbed to 24%, the highest since September. Rate-and-term refinances surged 33% MoM, while cash-out refinances saw a 3% decline. Purchase volumes dropped 13% MoM, in line with seasonal norms, while cash-out refinances decreased 3%.
Production mix shifts continue: The conforming loan share dropped another 1.5% MoM to 51%, the lowest figure since Optimal Blue began reporting lock data in January 2018, marking continued movement away from GSE-eligible products. FHA, VA, and non-conforming loans gained ground, with FHA locks rising to 21%, VA at nearly 11.5%, and non-conforming loans at 16%.
Purchase credit quality hits seven-year high: Average homebuyer credit scores were higher each month in 2024 than the previous 72 months.
MoM credit trends are stable: Average credit scores for purchase and rate-and-term refinance locks fell by 2 points to 737 and 727, respectively. Cash-out refinance scores rose slightly, increasing by 2 points to 697.
Loan amounts plateau as home prices decline: The average loan amount rose by $500 to $376.9K, while average home purchase prices dropped $4.1K to $473.7K.