TransUnion Report Reveals Diverging Credit Risk Trends Among U.S. Consumers

Recent patterns in consumer credit risk suggest a growing divide among U.S. consumers, as some demonstrate heightened financial resilience while others face mounting challenges. These insights come from TransUnion’s (NYSE: TRU) newly released Q3 2025 Credit Industry Insights Report (CIIR), which also reveals how these shifts are influencing lending behaviors across key credit markets.

Recent trends in consumer credit risk distribution show a steady increase in the percentage of individuals classified in the lowest risk super prime credit risk tier, rising from 37.1% in Q3 2019 to 40.9% in Q3 2025. This increase in the share of super prime borrowers occurred as the overall credit market expanded, with the total number of super prime borrowers now approximately 16 million higher than in 2019. This upward movement reflects continued financial stability among top-tier consumers. At the same time, the subprime segment has gradually returned to pre-pandemic levels after notable declines in 2020 and 2021, when many consumers were able to pay down debt and reduce credit account delinquencies during a period of reduced expenses and pandemic-related relief programs. 

Super Prime Consumer Share Continues to Rise as Subprime Returns to Pre-Pandemic Levels

	Q3 2019	Q3 2020	Q3 2021	Q3 2022	Q3 2023	Q3 2024	Q3 2025
Super prime	37.1%	38.9%	38.4%	38.3%	39.3%	40.3%	40.9%
Prime plus	17.6%	17.9%	19.2%	18.9%	18.0%	17.4%	16.9%
Prime	17.4%	17.5%	18.0%	17.6%	17.0%	16.3%	15.6%
Near prime	13.5%	13.2%	12.7%	12.4%	12.3%	12.1%	12.2%
Subprime	14.5%	12.5%	11.8%	12.8%	13.4%	13.9%	14.4%

Source: TransUnion U.S. Consumer Credit Database

“We are seeing a divergence in consumer credit risk, with more individuals moving toward either end of the credit risk spectrum,” said Jason Laky, executive vice president and head of financial services at TransUnion. “While super prime has steadily grown since the pandemic, subprime has returned to pre-pandemic levels—leaving the middle tiers increasingly thinner. This shift suggests that while many consumers are navigating the current economic climate well, others may be facing financial strain.”

The movement toward super prime and subprime tiers is clearly reflected in recent activity across the credit card and auto lending markets. Year-over-year growth in new account originations and total balances was strongest in these two tiers, far outpacing all others. This divergence in credit behavior highlights evolving consumer dynamics and underscores the importance of tailored risk strategies across the credit spectrum.

Credit Card and Auto Originations and Total Outstanding Balances Have Seen Greater YoY Growth on the 

Two Ends of the Risk Spectrum 

YoY% Change by Risk Tier	Credit Card		Auto
	Originations*	Total Balances	Originations*	Total Balances
Super prime	9.4%	7.6%	8.4%	4.1%
Prime plus	5.1%	3.5%	2.6%	-2.5%
Prime	0.9%	0.9%	0.4%	-2.7%
Near prime	5.4%	4.7%	4.5%	3.5%
Subprime	21.1%	6.4%	8.8%	6.5%

*Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.

Source: TransUnion U.S. Consumer Credit Database

“As consumers increasingly shift toward the extremes of the credit risk spectrum, it’s no surprise we’re seeing the sharpest growth in credit card and auto activity within those tiers,” said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion. “To navigate these changes effectively, lenders should leverage advanced tools—like access to trended data—to better assess evolving risk profiles.”