Refinance Activity

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE), released its March 2026 ICE Mortgage Monitor Report. According to the analysis, total mortgage originations reached an estimated 1.44 million in the fourth quarter — the largest quarterly tally since Q3 2022 — as a surge in refinance activity drove lending to its highest level in three and a half years and servicer retention climbed to an eight-year high.

ICE Mortgage Technology released its December 2025 ICE Mortgage Monitor Report. The latest analysis reveals servicer refinance retention rose to a 3.5-year high in Q3 2025 as falling interest rates expose homeowner eagerness to reduce monthly payments for lower returns than in past cycles.

Optimal Blue released its September 2024 Market Advantage mortgage data report, which found a 50% month-over-month (MoM) increase in rate-and-term refinance activity as people who purchased homes in recent years jumped at the opportunity to lower their interest rates and mortgage payments. While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered its target federal funds rate by 50 bps on Sept. 18, the market had already priced in a portion of the rate reduction, leading to a full month of increased refinance activity in September.

In its June Insights Report, STRATMOR Group examines how lenders will fare in the next refinance boom—and why some will be more successful than others in capturing that business. In his article, “Why a Refi Wave Won’t Save Every Lender and How to Prepare,” Senior Partner Garth Graham explains why the next refi wave will be different than past refi booms and provides strategies lenders can implement now to prepare.