iEmergent Revises 2024-2026 U.S. Mortgage Origination Forecast
iEmergent, a forecasting and advisory services firm for the financial services, mortgage and real estate industries, announced downward revision of its 2024–2026 U.S. Mortgage Origination Forecast. Updated to reflect ongoing economic conditions, iEmergent now expects lower-than-anticipated growth for the next two years, particularly in the purchase mortgage market, while refinance volumes are projected to rise due to a gradual decline in mortgage interest rates.
The revision comes as part of iEmergent’s quarterly forecast update, which integrates the latest economic data and market trends into the company’s detailed projections for mortgage originations across the United States. Using its proprietary forecasting methodology, iEmergent has adjusted its forecast for 2024 to reflect weaker-than-expected performance in purchase mortgage originations, which fell short of early-year estimates due to persistently high interest rates and continued housing affordability challenges.
According to iEmergent Chief Economist Mark Watson, 2024 purchase mortgage originations are now projected to decrease in loan count compared to 2023, though an increase in average loan sizes will lead to a modest 3.5% increase in purchase volume. Meanwhile, refinance originations are expected to rise 48% from their 2023 lows, driven by the recent softening of mortgage interest rates.
Looking ahead, iEmergent forecasts purchase volumes will grow by 7% in 2025, while refinance originations will increase by 37%, reflecting a more favorable interest rate environment. By 2026, overall mortgage origination volumes are expected to show modest recovery as housing affordability gradually improves.
“The economic boon of the COVID-era refinance boom has been underappreciated in its impact on keeping interest rates higher for longer than anticipated,” said Watson. “While this has helped maintain economic strength, it has also suppressed mortgage origination volumes. We expect rates to finally start declining in the months ahead, offering some relief for both potential buyers and those looking to refinance.”
The updated 2024–2026 U.S. Mortgage Origination Forecast is now available within iEmergent’s Mortgage MarketSmart platform, which allows lenders to map future lending opportunities at the census tract level and overlay them with historical loan production data, demographic insights, property listings and more.
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