2024 Forecast

Bank economists are expressing increased optimism about the outlook for business credit and the prospect of a soft landing for the U.S. economy over the next six months, according to the American Bankers Association’s latest Credit Conditions Index.

The second quarterly installment of WFG’s “Quarterly Economic Outlook,” an informative and influential webinar featuring Williston Financial Group (WFG) Chairman and Founder Patrick F. Stone and Economist and Forbes contributor Bill Conerly, Ph.D., will take place on Tuesday, June 18th at 1 pm ET/Noon CT/10 am PT.

At the end of March, the preliminary HMDA data for 2023 was released, so iEmergent has updated its mortgage origination forecast to align with that new information. For 2023, first lien mortgage originations totaled $1.44 trillion, a 37% decline from 2022 and the lowest level since 2014. Moreover, the company expects this year will only be slightly better. The forecast for 2024 is $1.59 trillion, with only a modest increase in purchase volume – mostly driven by loan size increases – and continued low levels of refinances.

MBA SVP and Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni’s reaction to the U.S. Commerce Department report on Q4 GDP bodes well for mortgage lending. He said:

In STRATMOR Group’s January Insights Report, Senior Partner Jim Cameron borrows from Abraham Maslow’s famed “hierarchy of needs” theory to offer mortgage lenders a real-world approach to shaping their strategies in 2024.

Now that 2023 is in the rear view mirror, it’s time to look ahead to 2024. PROGRESS in Lending got commentary from 13 top lending visionaries representing 10 different companies active in our space today, about what they think this year will be like. Here’s what they said:

The Fed’s decision to keep rates steady and possibly lower rates next year was welcomed by all in our industry, but what impact will this decision have on the bottom line of mortgage professionals really?