2024 Forecast

 iEmergent, a forecasting and advisory services firm for the financial services, mortgage and real estate industries, announced downward revision of its 2024–2026 U.S. Mortgage Origination Forecast. Updated to reflect ongoing economic conditions, iEmergent now expects lower-than-anticipated growth for the next two years, particularly in the purchase mortgage market, while refinance volumes are projected to rise due to a gradual decline in mortgage interest rates.

Industry participants from all sectors are hailing The Fed’s decision to finally cut rates as a positive. Many say this will help the mortgage industry rebound.

MBA SVP and Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni believes that the recent jobs report will be good news for mortgage lending. Here’s what he said:

High mortgage interest rates continue to challenge the housing market, and homebuyers’ budgets are increasingly stretched when buying a home. Overall, there is more caution in the housing market as housing indicators continue to revert to pre-pandemic trends and buyers evaluate their options.

Bad jobs numbers are causing Wall Street to worry today, but there may be a silver lining for the mortgage industry. MBA SVP and Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni, had this to say:

In its July Insights Report, STRATMOR Group shows how a likely upcoming surge in purchase business will be unlike previous purchase money markets and why it won’t benefit all lenders equally.

Bank economists are expressing increased optimism about the outlook for business credit and the prospect of a soft landing for the U.S. economy over the next six months, according to the American Bankers Association’s latest Credit Conditions Index.

The second quarterly installment of WFG’s “Quarterly Economic Outlook,” an informative and influential webinar featuring Williston Financial Group (WFG) Chairman and Founder Patrick F. Stone and Economist and Forbes contributor Bill Conerly, Ph.D., will take place on Tuesday, June 18th at 1 pm ET/Noon CT/10 am PT.

At the end of March, the preliminary HMDA data for 2023 was released, so iEmergent has updated its mortgage origination forecast to align with that new information. For 2023, first lien mortgage originations totaled $1.44 trillion, a 37% decline from 2022 and the lowest level since 2014. Moreover, the company expects this year will only be slightly better. The forecast for 2024 is $1.59 trillion, with only a modest increase in purchase volume – mostly driven by loan size increases – and continued low levels of refinances.

MBA SVP and Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni’s reaction to the U.S. Commerce Department report on Q4 GDP bodes well for mortgage lending. He said: