July MCTlive! Lock Volume Indices show that year-over-year total lock volume (-46.5 percent) continues to drop, as expected, when compared to the white-hot summer of 2021. However, the month-over-month rate/term refinance lock figure is up 11 percent versus June 2022 due to the recent bond market rally.
Total mortgage rate locks by dollar volume decreased 1.5 percent in July, with purchase locks also declining 1.5 percent month-over-month and 8.9 percent from a year ago. Rate/term refinances are down 11.4 percent and cash out refinances are down 5.3 percent month-over-month. From one year ago, cash out refinance volume is down 77.9 percent, while rate/term refinance volume has dropped 94.2 percent.
Given rate/term refinance volume was already down 90 percent year-over-year in the June MCTlive! Lock Volume Indices, this month’s drop does not change the total much. Please note that loan sizes were up 8.3 percent over the past year, with the average loan amount increasing from $291k to $315k.
It is important to note that MCT’s rate lock activity indices are based on actual dollar volume of locked loans, not number of applications. Especially in a tight purchase market, MCT believes its methodology (using actual loans locked vs. applications) is a more reliable metric. There is a higher likelihood of having multiple applications per funded loan, and prequals do not convert at as high of a rate in the current market as has historically been the case – especially when applications are counted at the early stage of entering a property address.
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