Jan./Feb. 2024 Edition

Marketpulse Data: US CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index Continues To Strengthen

With a full year of data on record as of December 2023, the CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index again indicated the resiliency of home prices against surging borrowing costs and historic housing supply shortages. In 2023, home prices increased by 2.4% compared with 2022, when gains averaged 14.8% for the year. Between 2014 and 2019, home price growth averaged 5.2%.

In December, the CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index rose by 5.5% year over year, the sixth month of annual increases following two months of annual declines. With the rebound in appreciation in 2023, home prices are now up by 0.6% compared with the June 2022 peak and up by 6.1% from the January 2023 bottom.

While prospects for 2024 housing market activity looked promising coming into the year, elevated mortgage rates, which recently took another step higher, are posing a challenge for both buyers and sellers. With early data for the supply of homes for sale and contracts signed in January and February, the expected 2024 rebound has yet to be seen, particularly as the spring homebuying season nears. But despite constrained sales activity, home prices are expected to moderate as the imbalance between buyers and sellers continues. The latest CoreLogic  Home Price Index (HPI) forecast estimates that home prices will increase by another 3% on average in 2024.  

High mortgage rates continued to impact monthly price gains in December, with the non-seasonally adjusted month-over-month index declining for the second time since January 2023, down by 0.4% in December, compared with the seasonally adjusted no change recorded on average between 2015 and 2019.

The 10-city and 20-city composite indexes posted six months of annual increases in December, up by 7% and 6.1%, respectively. Both indexes are also up by 7.4% and 6.7%, respectively, since the beginning of 2023. The 10-city index includes currently better-performing metro areas such as New York and Chicago, which have seen relatively stronger housing markets since mid-2022, as the return to cities and offices continues. Many of these metros are catching up on home prices gains that pandemic-era boomtowns experienced during COVID-19. The metros with the strongest gains since the beginning of 2023 include San Diego, (up by 9.9%), Detroit (up by 9.1%) and Chicago (up by 8.6%).

Compared with the 2006 peak, the 10-city composite index is now 47% higher, while the 20-city composite is up by 54%. Adjusted for inflation, which is showing signs of easing, the 10-city index is now 1% higher than its 2006 level, while the 20-city index is up by 5% compared with its 2006 high point. Nationally, home prices are 15% higher (adjusted for inflation) compared with 2006.