Mortgage credit availability increased in December 2021 according to the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) that analyzes data from Ellie Mae’s AllRegs® Market Clarity® business information tool.
The MCAI rose by 0.8 percent to 125.9 in December. A decline in the MCAI indicates that lending standards are tightening, while increases in the index are indicative of loosening credit. The index was benchmarked to 100 in March 2012. The Conventional MCAI increased 0.8 percent, while the Government MCAI increased by 0.7 percent. Of the component indices of the Conventional MCAI, the Jumbo MCAI increased by 0.6 percent, and the Conforming MCAI rose by 1.1 percent.
“Credit supply increased in December, with growth across both conventional and government segments of the market. The overall credit index increased to its highest level since May 2021, but remained 30 percent below its pre-pandemic level,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “December’s growth was driven by more ARM and lower credit score loan programs, which was likely due to a combination of the rising rate environment and affordability challenges. Lenders expanded offerings to qualified borrowers who were the most impacted by these market conditions. Additionally, there was an increase in government streamline refinance programs to aid borrowers still looking to refinance before rates rise even more.”
Added Kan, “The overall supply of mortgage credit only grew around 3 percent compared to the same month a year ago, with a 34 percent increase in jumbo credit availability contributing to most of that growth. Government credit supply, as well as conforming credit, saw tightening last year.”
CONVENTIONAL, GOVERNMENT, CONFORMING, AND JUMBO MCAI COMPONENT INDICES
The MCAI rose by 0.8 percent to 125.9 in December. The Conventional MCAI increased 0.8 percent, while the Government MCAI increased by 0.7 percent. Of the component indices of the Conventional MCAI, the Jumbo MCAI increased by 0.6 percent, and the Conforming MCAI rose by 1.1 percent.
The Conventional, Government, Conforming, and Jumbo MCAIs are constructed using the same methodology as the Total MCAI and are designed to show relative credit risk/availability for their respective index. The primary difference between the total MCAI and the Component Indices are the population of loan programs which they examine. The Government MCAI examines FHA/VA/USDA loan programs, while the Conventional MCAI examines non-government loan programs. The Jumbo and Conforming MCAIs are a subset of the conventional MCAI and do not include FHA, VA, or USDA loan offerings. The Jumbo MCAI examines conventional programs outside conforming loan limits, while the Conforming MCAI examines conventional loan programs that fall under conforming loan limits.
The Conforming and Jumbo indices have the same “base levels” as the Total MCAI (March 2012=100), while the Conventional and Government indices have adjusted “base levels” in March 2012. MBA calibrated the Conventional and Government indices to better represent where each index might fall in March 2012 (the “base period”) relative to the Total=100 benchmark.
EXPANDED HISTORICAL SERIES
The Total MCAI has an expanded historical series that gives perspective on credit availability going back approximately 10-years (expanded historical series does not include Conventional, Government, Conforming, or Jumbo MCAI). The expanded historical series covers 2004 through 2010, and was created to provide historical context to the current series by showing how credit availability has changed over the last 10 years – including the housing crisis and ensuing recession. Data prior to March 31, 2011, was generated using less frequent and less complete data measured at 6-month intervals and interpolated in the months between for charting purposes. Methodology on the expanded historical series from 2004 to 2010 has not been updated.
Data prior to 3/31/2011 was generated using less frequent and less complete data measured at 6-month intervals interpolated in the months between for charting purposes.
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