July’s Mortgage Lock Volume Flat Amongst Rising Rates In Latest MCT Indices Report

Mortgage Capital Trading, Inc. (MCT), a mortgage hedge advisory and secondary marketing software firm, reported a relatively flat .44% increase in mortgage lock volume over the prior month.

The relatively flat change in volume is likely attributed to seasonal momentum through Summer. “While July’s mortgage lock volume remained relatively flat, mortgage rates continued to climb through July,” said MCT’s COO, Phil Rasori. “If rates continue to hold or climb from these new levels established in the first week of August, we can expect volume to drop.”

The Fed’s July decision to raise the Federal Funds Rate has contributed to an eight-month high for mortgage rates. This, coupled with the highest 10-year treasury yield in years and Fitch’s recent decision to downgrade the U.S. credit rating, could spell rough seas ahead for the mortgage industry.

This month’s MCT Indices also shows a roughly 13% drop in total lock volume from this time last year. However, this morning’s August Nonfarm payroll report could be offering signs of hope. “If this morning’s indications of a slightly cooling labor market were to persist into the future, this would provide more cover for the Fed to continue to pause and eventually cut rates,” said Mr. Rasori.

MCT’s Lock Volume Indices present a snapshot of rate lock volume activity in the residential mortgage industry broken out by lock type (purchase, rate/term refinance, and cash out refinance) across a broad diversity of lenders (e.g., sizes, products/services offered, business models) from MCT’s national footprint.